Drivers of transport nitrous oxide emissions in Malaysia using an ARDL analysis of socioeconomic and environmental factors

This study analyzes the drivers of nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from Malaysia’s transport sector over the 1995–2023 period ( N = 29) using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and impulse response functions (IRF). Within the limitations of the sample size, we investigate the associations between GDP, air pollution, urbanization, FDI, and tourism with N₂O emissions. Long-run estimates suggest that air pollution, urbanization, and tourism are positively associated with transport-based N₂O emissions, pointing to the environmental costs of economic progress and increased mobility. FDI shows a positive coefficient that is significant only at the 10% level, providing weak and tentative evidence. Conversely, GDP has an insignificant association, suggesting that economic growth alone is not a guarantee of environmental improvement, a finding relevant to Malaysia’s Paris Agreement commitment to reduce greenhouse gas intensity by 45% by 2030. Short-run dynamics indicate negative shocks from air pollution and lagged GDP, consistent with temporary effects of policy interventions or delayed technology adoption. These findings are consistent with the relevance of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 and 13 and suggest potential value in integrated transport and environmental policies with targeted interventions for urban planning, tourism, and foreign investment regulation.