Proximal Antecedents of Eloping and Reoffending Among Supervised Mentally Disordered Offenders

Sixty mentally disordered male offenders who had eloped from hospital or reoffended while under supervision were compared with 51 male offenders who had done neither. Subjects were matched on diagnosis, age, and level of supervision. In addition to an actuarially based estimate of risk of violent reoffending and other static measures, proximal dynamic variables were coded from clinical file information. Seven dynamic variables differentiated elopers/reoffenders from other patients after controlling for actuarial risk level and also differentiated the period preceding eloping or reoffending from an earlier period. These robust predictors fell into two groups: those involving noncompliance with supervision and antisocial attitudes and those pertaining to emotional dysphoria and psychiatric symptoms. Violent reoffenders were best differentiated from their controls by a proximal factor labeled Dynamic Antisociality. Violent reoffenders were more likely to be personality disordered, and elopers were more likely to be psychotic.