Regional impacts of carbon pricing on emission transfers: A multi-regional CGE analysis of China’s yellow river basin

The Yellow River Basin is a key carbon-emitting region in China with significant regional disparities in economic structure and resource endowments. This study employs a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated with 2017 provincial input–output data, to explore how alternative nationwide carbon pricing scenarios, which is motivated by China’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), would affect emissions and interprovincial carbon transfers in the Yellow River Basin under carbon prices of 80, 140, and 200 CNY/ton. We evaluate emissions from production, consumption, and trade-embedded perspectives in order to track how ETS-induced price signals reshape interprovincial embodied carbon flows within the Basin. Our findings indicate that while carbon pricing reduces the magnitude of interprovincial carbon emissions transfer, the general spatial pattern remains relatively stable across scenarios. Resource-intensive upstream provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Ningxia experience more significant reductions in GDP and production-based emissions, while downstream provinces are less affected. The results highlight uneven regional responses to a uniform carbon price and call for region-specific mitigation support and basin-wide coordination to ensure equitable decarbonization.