Interrupted time-series analysis reveals significant consumer welfare effects of sanctions in Russia, indicating regional disparities.
Key Points
The study aims to analyze consumer welfare impacts from economic sanctions in Russia, focusing on differences between the 2014 and 2022 sanctions.
Interrupted time-series analysis of monthly Rosstat and Central Bank of Russia data from 2011 to 2024.
Comparison of consumer welfare metrics including prices, food affordability, and regional purchasing power across the two sanction episodes.
The 2022 sanctions raised the Consumer Price Index by approximately 120 index points (p < 0.001), significantly higher than the 2014 sanctions' effect of 6 index points.
Food affordability decreased by about 286 index points in 2022, compared to a 17 index point drop in 2014.
Agricultural regions faced the largest immediate welfare losses in 2022, challenging expectations that major cities would be most affected.