Threatened, mobilised, distrustful: social trust among young people in Ukraine’s war context

This study uses the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war to clarify how social trust changes among young people during conflict by distinguishing between two primary pathways – ideological and experiential. The former captures changes in the level of trust arising from war-induced shifts in individuals’ beliefs and normative orientations, as assessed through ideological mobilisation. The latter reflects wartime influences on social trust stemming from deteriorations in personal safety and mental health, conceptualized as experiential harm. The analysis is based on structural equation modelling, using data collected from 1,224 respondents aged 18–35 through an online survey conducted in 2024. The findings show that experiential harm is negatively associated with trust not only directly but also indirectly, primarily through reduced confidence in state institutions. Ideological mobilisation provides an indirect buffer against these negative consequences; however, this buffer is insufficient to fully offset them at the current stage of the conflict.