Framing the Russia-Ukraine crisis: deconstructing the efficacy and divergence of China’s media strategy

While China’s censorship mechanisms are well-documented, the efficacy of state media in shaping public opinion on international conflicts remains underexplored. This study investigates how the China Media Group (CMG) employs strategic framing in its reporting on the Russia-Ukraine crisis across three platforms: Xinwen Lianbo, Weibo, and X (formerly Twitter). Utilizing Structural Topic Modeling (STM) on two years of data (February 2022–2024) and a complementary questionnaire survey, the research analyses cross-platform media strategies. Findings indicate a positive but weak correlation between report duration and viewing frequency, confirming a baseline agenda-setting effect where extended airtime elevates issue salience. However, the persuasive power of official narratives is significantly tempered by public predispositions and alternative information sources. The study concludes that agenda-setting under authoritarian conditions functions as a process of “calibrated influence,” demonstrating that while state media can set the agenda, its ability to dictate opinion is mediated by audience agency. This study thereby refines classical communication models, illustrating how digital-age authoritarian regimes deploy cross-platform strategies to simultaneously direct domestic attention and shape international perceptions, while accounting for audience agency and platform-specific dynamics.