Quantifying Dynamic Evolution of Preferential Flow Paths in Displacement Units of Ultra-High Water-Cut Reservoirs

Preferential flow paths and ineffective water circulation are difficult to quantify in ultra-high water-cut reservoirs because long-term waterflooding intensifies dynamic heterogeneity and oil–water flow interactions. This study develops a displacement unit (DU)-scale method that integrates dynamic liquid-volume splitting, saturation tracking, and techno-economic water-cut evaluation while considering time-varying reservoir properties. The method was applied to a typical ultra-high water-cut block in the Daqing Oilfield to characterize the temporal evolution of preferential flow paths. A total of 902 DUs were delineated from streamline envelopes, and validation with production profile data from representative wells showed an accuracy exceeding 82%. Under an oil price of 60 USD/bbl, the proposed economic water-cut criterion identified 368 economically strong preferential-flow DUs, accounting for 40.79% of all DUs. Two indicators, the water-cut profit–loss margin (Δfw) and oil displacement efficiency (Ed), were then used to establish a Δfw-Ed classification matrix. The DUs were divided into four types: economically ineffective strong-channeling units, channeling units with remaining potential, mature stable production units, and homogeneous units. The results support differentiated control measures, such as channel plugging, profile control, cyclic waterflooding, and fluid-rate optimization, for improving waterflood management in mature reservoirs.