The perceptual ceiling in fragile mountain regions: stakeholder perspectives on destination resilience in a Himalayan borderland

Adventure sport tourism offers vital economic lifelines to fragile mountain borderlands; however, traditional destination competitiveness frameworks frequently overlook the systemic structural constraints and unequal power dynamics inherent in these geopolitically sensitive zones. Addressing this research gap, this study investigates the stakeholder ecosystem in the Himalayan borderland of Kashmir to examine the tension between idealized destination potential and operational realities. Utilizing a cross-sectional survey (N=508) of tourists, adventure operators, and local residents, the research identifies a significant structural-perceptual gap. Key findings reveal a ‘normalization of risk’ wherein all stakeholder groups prioritize marketing deficits and inadequate infrastructure as primary barriers, rating them significantly higher than acute safety concerns. Furthermore, a one-way ANOVA shows that local adventure operators perceive these developmental barriers more intensely than transient tourists, indicating acute supply-side operational exhaustion. By integrating Risk Perception and Stakeholder Theories, this research introduces the ‘Perceptual Ceiling’ and the ‘Price-Risk Nexus’ as preliminary theoretical propositions extending existing models. Ultimately, the study argues that destination management in fragile contexts must transition from superficial promotional optics to resilient, operations-based governance, utilizing formalized benefit-sharing to maintain a conditional social license to operate.