Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of the rural population-land-industry system in Alpine ecologically fragile areas: Evidence from the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

As a high-altitude and ecologically fragile region, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) faces critical challenges in coordinating rural population–land–industry (PLI) systems. Using data from 178 counties (2010−2022), this study applies entropy–AHP weighting, an adjusted coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, Markov chains, and XGBoost model to analyze spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms. Results show gradual improvement but persistent subsystem imbalance, with a “high southeast–low northwest” pattern. The CCD increases gradually but remains low, with low long-term transition probability. Natural conditions, especially terrain slope, population density, and elevation are the dominant drivers.