What question did this study set out to answer?

This paper aims to develop a framework for measuring coherence in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction megaprojects to enhance stability assessment.

July 3, 2026Open Access

Operational Physics of Mega-Project Stability: Coherence Measurement for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Systems — EPC Observatory and Coherence Intelligence Platform (UCMS Canon)

Key Points

This paper aims to develop a framework for measuring coherence in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction megaprojects to enhance stability assessment.
Introduces the EPC Observatory and Coherence Intelligence Platform to extend Standard Coherence Fidelity Layer (SCFL) into EPC systems.
Conducts holdout validation across five empirical collapse cases using a leave-one-out protocol with 20% holdout fraction.
Employs a nine-operator MaaS pipeline that integrates existing project telemetry into coherence metrics.
Achieves a median AUC of approximately 0.87 (range 0.85–0.89) for predictive modeling of stability.
Demonstrates ±1.3-week lead-time stability with embedding correlation r ≥ 0.96 for the Precursor Window assessment.
Defines a twelve-week passive data-mirroring pilot protocol with falsifiable success criteria for evaluating coherence management.

Abstract

This paper introduces the EPC Observatory and the Coherence Intelligence Platform, extending the Standard Coherence Fidelity Layer (SCFL) into Engineering, Procurement eight-parameter seam physics model with proxy instrument mapping; discrete and continuous-time amplification cascade formulations; EPC Recovery-Trajectory Classification (R1–R4, Bonanno-equivalent); Executive KPI Bridge (Δ-drift → schedule-slip probability; Φ-phase stability → procurement coherence strength; τ-tension → seam-stress escalation rate); three-tier EPC value structure; and a defined 12-week passive data-mirroring pilot protocol with falsifiable success criteria (F1–F4). The paper is part of the Upstream Coherence Measurement Stratum (UCMS) Canon (128+ deposited manuscripts). Primary canon references: SCFL Vol. 1 (10.5281/zenodo.20571818), Ripple Physics (10.5281/zenodo.20985523), NRSCO v1.3 (10.5281/zenodo.20788254). sample report available for download Author: Ronald L Brogdon | Team Leader, UCMS | ORCID: 0009-0009-0507-2971 | measurement@coherencemanagement

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Ronald Brogdon (Wed,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a47556d5c29257aa257a824 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21088556

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