Metacognitive calibration, self-directed learning, and self-regulated learning among Indian medical students: A mediation analysis

Background: Medical students frequently misjudge their learning, affecting how they plan and regulate their studies. Exploring how calibration supports self-directed learning (SDL) and leads toward self-regulated learning (SRL) is important for strengthening competency-based education. The study examined the association between metacognitive calibration, SDL, and SRL among MBBS students, and assessed whether SDL mediates the relationship between calibration and SRL. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 200 undergraduate medical students in Rajasthan, India, from January 2024 to December 2024. Participants completed a 20-question test on “nutritional anaemia” and immediately estimated their scores and question-level confidence. Calibration error was calculated by subtracting actual score from perceived score. Validated scales were used to measure SDL, SRL, and perceived stress. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, group comparisons, and regression-based mediation modeling. Results: The mean (standard deviation) calibration error was − 9.74 (4.9). Calibration showed moderate negative correlations with SDL ( r = −0.47) and SRL ( r = −0.40). Mediation analysis showed that calibration error predicted SDL (β = −0.47, 95% confidence interval [CI], −0.57–−0.36) and SRL (β = −0.40 (95% CI − 0.50–−0.28). SDL partially mediated the relationship between calibration and SRL (β = −0.24 (95% CI, −0.33–−0.17), accounting for 59% of the total effect. Conclusion: More accurate self-judgment was associated with higher SDL and SRL behaviours. The mediation effect of SDL on SRL suggests that medical students are conceptually ready to begin transitioning toward SRL-oriented educational practices provided that metacognitive training, structured feedback, and faculty support systems are strengthened.