The Politics of Perception: Identity, Media, and Major-Power Attitudes in Central Asia

While the desire of major powers for spheres of influence in smaller states has been extensively researched, the formation of public opinion in such states remains understudied. Using a series of Central Asian Barometer surveys, this study explores the factors associated with individuals’ foreign policy preferences among lesser powers neighbouring larger powers. We focus on the role of ethnic identity, language, and information sources in shaping individuals’ views of major powers—China, Russia, and the United States. Our findings suggest that Russian-speaking members of ethnic titular groups view Russia and China less favourably and the US more favourably than other social strata, when the Russian language operation is confined to the elite groups. Consumption of Russian and national news is associated with more favourable views of China and Russia, and less favourable views of the United States. We attribute these outcomes to the China-Russia political alignment and the effect of the Russian media campaign. We conclude that social hierarchies, path dependencies, and exposure to foreign media influence individual perspectives on major powers.