A causal network for strategic foresight of Inclusive Climate Actions through co-creation of Nature-Based Solutions

Urban systems exhibit complex dynamics that create interrelated environmental, social, and economic challenges. While most studies focus on sector-specific issues, recent approaches address urban complexity through comprehensive frameworks grounded on Systems thinking. In this context, Inclusive Climate Actions (ICAs) are adopted not only to mitigate and adapt to climate change, but also to deliver social and economic benefits. Nevertheless, the impacts of ICAs within urban systems remain largely unexplored. This study develops a digital decision-support tool based on a foresight methodology to facilitate the co-creation of urban development scenarios through ICAs , such as Nature-based Solutions, integrated within complex urban systems. The methodology constructs a causal network that defines the relationships between ICAs and pre-defined Key Performance Indicators, and operationalizes it as digital decision-support tool. Additionally, the network defines interrelationships among KPIs, highlighting synergies and trade-offs. The tool estimates the relative changes induced by the actions selected by users, both numerically and spatially. The digital decision-support tool is designed to automate the estimation process, and can be used during participatory workshops with local stakeholders, citizens, and public administrations to provide real-time information on the impacts of selected actions. This work is part of the DUT-funded GREEN-INC project.