Stage-Specific Characteristics, Trend Variability, and Future Scenario Simulation of Rocky Desertification Recovery in Southeastern Yunnan, China

The restoration of karst rocky desertification is reflected not only in the reduction in severely degraded areas but also in the stability of the restoration process and the potential risk of future reversal. Taking southeastern Yunnan, China, as the study area, this study constructed a six-period rocky desertification grade sequence for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2024 using Landsat imagery, CLCD land-cover data, and DEM-derived slope constraints. Area change analysis, grade-transition matrices, Sen–MK trend analysis, coefficient of variation (CV), Markov–PLUS scenario simulation, scenario-sensitivity analysis, and PLUS driver contribution assessment were integrated into a process-oriented diagnostic framework to examine rocky desertification recovery from three dimensions: grade-structure adjustment, trend-variability stability, and potential future reversal risk. The results indicate that rocky desertification in southeastern Yunnan generally weakened from 2000 to 2024. The proportion of moderate-and-above rocky desertification decreased from 50.32% to 28.58%, while non-rocky desertification and potential rocky desertification expanded substantially. Grade transitions were dominated by gradual conversions among adjacent classes, with the most evident improvement occurring during 2010–2015, when the proportion of improvement transitions reached 44.16%. The trend-variability analysis indicated that while improvement dominated the study area overall, the northern, northwestern, central mountainous, and parts of the southwestern areas still exhibited relatively strong variability and localized deterioration risk. Hindcast validation showed relatively high map-level consistency between simulated and historical patterns, with an overall accuracy of 0.9354 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.9153. The three-scenario comparison further showed that the proportion of moderate-and-above rocky desertification varied from 28.07% to 29.41% in 2030 and from 26.85% to 29.06% in 2035 under different transition-probability assumptions. Specifically, the ecological restoration enhancement scenario reduced projected moderate-and-above rocky desertification, whereas the degradation pressure scenario increased it relative to the baseline scenario. These findings indicate that rocky desertification recovery in southeastern Yunnan is not a continuous or linear process, but is characterized by stage-specific adjustment, spatial differentiation, and local variability. Therefore, future rocky desertification control should focus not only on reducing high-severity areas, but also on maintaining restoration stability, identifying variability-sensitive transitional zones, and strengthening differentiated management in areas where terrain constraints, land-cover proximity, and historical variability jointly increase reversal risk.