Burden of falls in Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Falls are a major global public health issue, but detailed evaluations of their burden in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are limited. This study assesses the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to falls in MENA region from 1990 to 2021. We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, analyzing estimates for 21 MENA countries. We examined all-age and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population by sex, age group, country and year. In 2021, MENA reported 14.29 million (95% UI 12.71, 16.19) incident fall cases, with an age-standardized incidence rate of 2281.67 (2042.45, 2564.66) per 100,000. Prevalence was 30.32 million (25.69, 35.03) cases, at an age-standardized rate of 5234.03 (4476.03, 6011.50) per 100,000. Falls led to 23404 (20142, 27599) deaths, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 5.66 (4.85, 6.73) per 100,000, and 2.17 million (1.78, 2.69) DALYs. Burden was higher among males and adults over 80 years. Saudi Arabia had the highest incidence and prevalence, and Afghanistan had highest mortality. Falls represent a growing public health threat in MENA, intensified by ageing populations. Improved surveillance, targeted prevention for at-risk groups and embedding strategies in primary care and national health policies - are critical.