Climate-induced displacement and urban insecurity in Pakistan: comparative evidence from Karachi and Lahore

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a threat multiplier for conflict. However, much of the climate – security literature remains nationally aggregated or rural-focused, offering limited insight into how environmental shocks reshape security and development dynamics within cities. This article examines how climate-induced internal displacement following Pakistan’s 2022 floods intersects with pre-existing urban vulnerabilities in Karachi and Lahore, and how these interactions influence social tension, exclusion, and conflict risk. Drawing on qualitative interviews with displaced persons and civil society organisations, triangulated with secondary documentary sources, the study adopts an integrated human security and climate – conflict framework to analyse economic, health, environmental, and community insecurities. Displacement functions primarily as a stress multiplier rather than a direct trigger of violence. In Karachi, displacement is politicised via ethnic and territorial narratives ingrained in informal governance regimes. In Lahore, exclusion operates through class-based dynamics of labour and land that render the displaced legally invisible. The article demonstrates that climate-related displacement reshapes urban development through local governance rather than a predictable slide into conflict.