Structural Determinants of Disaster Risk Management Expenditures in Selected Developed and Developing Countries Most Exposed to Disasters: A Comparative Panel Data Analysis

This study employs a comparative panel data approach to examine the macroeconomic, social-vulnerability, and demographic determinants of Disaster Risk Management Expenditures (DRME-aryth), considering the structural heterogeneity among selected developed and developing countries most exposed to disasters. Although the macroeconomic impacts of disasters are extensively discussed in the literature, studies analyzing the multi-dimensional determinants of DRME-aryth across different development levels remain limited. By presenting distinct expenditure models for different country groups using data spanning the 2014–2023 period, this research aims to bridge this gap.The main originality of the study lies in providing empirical evidence on how structural factors affecting disaster expenditures vary across development levels. The analysis results indicate that in the Developing Countries (EMDEs-GOÜ) model, post-disaster economic losses have a strong and significant negative impact on DRME-aryth. This finding suggests that these countries rely on external aid and international financial mechanisms instead of national capacity for post-disaster financing. Conversely, in the Developed Countries (DCs-GÜ) model, the elderly population share and fiscal capacity are found to be decisive factors, while the literacy rate is significant for both country groups. Furthermore, the structural break years (i.e., the years marking shifts in expenditure policy) also differ between the two country groups: 2016 for developed countries and 2021 for developing countries.