The Macro Vulnerabilities to the Clean Energy Transition: An Empirical Assessment

The macro environment is one of the analytical levels of the multilevel transition perspective that has the potential to shape the clean energy transition. Following the Political, Economic, Social and Technological (PEST) framework, the present study analyzes the paths by which these four macro dimensions jointly shape wind, solar, and hydropower energy deployment. The final goal is to identify the macro vulnerabilities to the clean energy transition, that is, how and when the macro environment fosters and hinders the deployment of clean energies. The study has been carried out for EU countries in four different periods in order to identify whether macro environmental dimensions display a varying role in the clean energy transition across different economic contexts. These periods are: (1) a protracted slow‐paced W‐shaped crisis ranging from 2008 to 2013; (2) a protracted and slow‐paced economic recovery ranging from 2014 to 2019; (3) a sharp and fast‐paced V‐shaped crisis in 2020; and (4) a fast‐paced economic recovery in the years 2021 and 2022. Using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this study shows that macro vulnerabilities in clean energy transitions are shaped by complex interaction dynamics among macro‐level conditions. It further demonstrates that macro vulnerabilities are specific to each type of renewable energy, with wind, solar, and hydropower exhibiting distinct dynamics, while also reflecting enduring structural patterns that persist across different economic scenarios. These insights carry significant policy implications, underscoring the need for strategies that address the causal complexity and recognize the energy‐specific nature of transition dynamics.