Same Seeds, More Fertile Ground: Sources of AfD Dominance in Eastern Germany

In Eastern Germany, the AfD receives up to twice the support it commands in the West, achieving a level of radical right strength without precedent in postwar German history. Drawing on a framework of socio-economic deprivation, political alienation, and cultural backlash, we employ a two-stage research design combining the nationally representative German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) 2023, which enables systematic comparisons between Eastern and Western Germany, with the Sachsen-Monitor 2023, which captures region-specific constructs. Across both datasets, political alienation and cultural resentment prove substantially stronger predictors of AfD support than socio-economic grievances, while compositional differences between East and West, such as age, income, and demographic structure, explain little. Rather, the AfD thrives where general risk factors are amplified and extreme-right milieus are historically entrenched. East-specific symbolic deprivation, operationalised through the construct of 'second-class citizenship,' contributes to AfD support primarily by feeding into political alienation. The conclusion is simple: not distinct causes, but familiar drivers on more fertile ground.