Unveiling the dual-cycle evolution mechanisms in China’s commercial space industry: A novel framework integrating AI-driven causal analysis

As the world enters an unprecedented era of intensive satellite launches, the commercial space industry is expanding rapidly, bolstered by substantial policy backing and societal interest. However, the interactive mechanisms and evolutionary pathways driving this growth remain largely unexplored, impeding efforts to steer the industry toward high-quality development. To address this, we constructed a corpus derived from corporate interviews, policy documents, and relevant literature. Additionally, a large language model was leveraged to extract and analyze causal relationships, enabling a quantitative causal network of the industry. This study yields two principal findings: (1) The evolution of China’s commercial space industry is propelled by a robust and self-reinforcing dual-cycle engine: an endogenous cycle, where technology advancement drives cost reduction and enables commercialization, and an exogenous cycle, where policy and market dynamics stimulate investment and cluster collaboration, ultimately forming an intertwined feedback loop. (2) These dynamics delineate a six-stage strategic pathway, progressing from national strategy to industrial implementation and culminating in the formation of a sustainable ecosystem. This study provides a novel, causal-mechanism framework for understanding the evolution of China’s commercial space industry, and the identified pathways offer systematic guidance for policymakers.