Digitalisation and waste-to-energy development: Nonlinear and dynamic evidence from the European Union

The role of digitalisation in supporting energy recovery from waste remains insufficiently understood, particularly within circular economy systems. While digital technologies are expected to enhance efficiency, their effects on waste-to-energy (WTE) development may be complex, context-dependent, and subject to temporal dynamics that have not been systematically examined. This study investigates the relationship between digitalisation and WTE development across European Union countries over the period 2000–2024. Using panel data from Eurostat and the World Development Indicators, the analysis applies a multi-specification framework based on two-way fixed effects estimations and robust inference techniques. The results indicate no statistically significant contemporaneous relationship between digitalisation and WTE development, while evidence of nonlinear and interaction effects remains limited. However, a statistically significant lagged association emerged, suggesting that digitalisation is related to WTE development over time. Structural factors, including waste generation, urbanisation, and recycling, also play a significant role. These findings indicate that digitalisation acts as an enabling rather than a direct driver of WTE development, highlighting the importance of system integration and long-term policy design.