Detecting misaligned coordination in cropland quantity-quality-ecology systems: a target-oriented assessment across functional zones

Cropland quantity, quality, and ecological condition may improve in a composite assessment without becoming better aligned with zone-specific management targets. Conventional aggregation can offset deterioration in one dimension with gains in another, obscuring the resulting risk profile. We therefore propose a Target-Oriented Vector Coordination Model (TO-VCM) to evaluate whether county-level changes in cropland quantity (Q), quality (U), and ecology (E) align with policy-referenced management mandates. The model distinguishes structural alignment ( C stru ) from effective advancement ( L dev ) and integrates these indices with pathway classification and obstacle diagnosis. Applied to Qinghai Province, China, for 2020–2024, the framework showed that 22 of 35 counties improved in overall performance, while 9 of these counties also deviated further from zone-specific targets. Thus, higher composite scores did not necessarily indicate closer convergence with the intended management pathway. The TO-VCM provides a diagnostic basis for identifying such mismatches and informing differentiated cropland governance.