Mapping post-consumer textile waste circularity using SDG and trade indicators across EU-15 and EU-13 countries

The growing environmental burden of post-consumer textile waste (PCTW) emphasizes the need for improved circularity metrics and performance evaluation across nations. This study examines the trends in PCTW generation, recycling, import, and export across 27 European countries from 2017 to 2022, with a focus on two original trade-based indicators: Export Intensity Ratio (EXPIR) and Recycling Intensity Ratio (RECIR). Combined with selected sustainable development goal indicators, these metrics were used for multiple linear regression modeling to quantify PCTW generation and recycling rates across the economically distinct European Union country groups, EU-15 and EU-13. The findings reveal that PCTW recycling rates remain significantly lower than generation rates (median = 1.80 vs 6.91 kg/capita), with continuous accumulation driven by high new textile imports. While EU-15 countries show higher overall rates of generation, recycling, import, and export, the EU-13 group demonstrated relatively stronger circularity performance based on simple additive weighting rankings. Cyprus achieved the highest RECIR/EXPIR ratio (1.02), indicating a stronger domestic recycling focus, potentially due to limited export flow and rising consumer awareness and education levels. Model results indicate improved accuracy (R² = 0.680 - 0.768) when environmental sustainability indicators are combined with the proposed metrics, supporting their effectiveness in PCTW management strategies.