Mapping the path to SDG 4 through integrated spatiotemporal forecasting of educational attainment in Eastern Africa from 1990 to 2030

Educational attainment is a fundamental driver of sustainable development, yet its spatial dynamics in Eastern Africa remain understudied. This study addresses the research gap by employing a sequential spatiotemporal framework, implemented via the SAW-SIMODI-SURAD platform, that integrates exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) with univariate time-series forecasting to analyze years of schooling (YoS) from 1990 to 2030. Using data for 14 countries, we identify positive but statistically non-significant global spatial autocorrelation in 2023, alongside localized clustering patterns and persistent regional disparities. The methodology utilizes global Moran’s I and Geary’s C for spatial diagnostics, followed by optimal model selection (ARIMA, NNAR, BATS, and Theta) for country-specific projections. Results reveal a “southern corridor” of comparatively high attainment, represented by Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, alongside persistent low-attainment patterns in parts of the Horn of Africa, particularly Ethiopia and Eritrea. Projections to 2030 indicate a widening regional divergence: Kenya is forecasted to reach 9.989 years of schooling, while Ethiopia remains at 2.417 years. These findings suggest that current trajectories will maintain a bifurcated regional system, undermining the collective promise of SDG 4. The study concludes that achieving inclusive and equitable quality education requires a transition from purely national strategies to regionally coordinated, spatially targeted policy interventions.