Too much to fake: the nonlinear link between dependence on nature and corporate greenwashing

Corporate dependence on ecosystem services is attracting growing scrutiny from investors and regulators, yet its implications for greenwashing remain unexplored. Using 30,668 firm-year observations from Chinese A-share listed firms over 2010–2023, we document a robust inverted-U relationship between dependence on nature and greenwashing: greenwashing rises with dependence at low-to-moderate levels but declines beyond a critical threshold. This nonlinear pattern emerges only under weak external monitoring—namely low media attention and nonstate ownership—and vanishes when monitoring is strong, consistent with a spotlight-constraint mechanism. Decomposing dependence by ecosystem service type shows that the inverted-U is driven by highly visible regulating services, including waste treatment, climate regulation, and water regulation. Dependence on nature is thus not merely a source of financial risk but a key determinant of firms’ environmental communication, and surveillance is best targeted at moderately nature-dependent firms.