How effective are mathematical models in explaining dengue transmission and evaluating mosquito-control strategies, and how applicable are their findings to public-health planning in Pakistan?

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infection that is mainly transmitted through the bites of the Aedes mosquito, remains a major public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions, including Pakistan. The transmission of dengue is difficult to predict because it is influenced by various factors like human population, mosquito vectors, climate, and immunity. This review examines the use of mathematical models to explain the transmission of dengue and evaluate mosquito control strategies while focusing on their relevance to public-health planning in Pakistan. This review evaluates various modelling approaches, which include vector-host, compartmental, deterministic, stochastic, spatial, climate-driven, and agent-based models. It also examines the biological, environmental, and human factors which are commonly included in dengue models along with the modelling of control strategies such as source reduction, insecticide spraying, wolbachia-based control, and sterile mosquito release. This review aims to highlight the significance of mathematical modelling in identifying important transmission factors, estimating the potential risk of the outbreak and comparing control strategies. However, the reliability of model predictions highly depends upon the quality of data, assumptions, parameter estimates, and local adaptation. Therefore, models that are developed abroad should be applied and used for public-health planning in Pakistan with caution, backed by local surveillance, climate, and epidemiological data.