Electricity instability and digital governance performance: a political economy analysis of urban–rural inequality in Nigeria

This study examines how electricity instability conditions digital governance performance in Nigeria through a political economy perspective, with particular emphasis on urban–rural inequalities, institutional effectiveness, and citizen trust. Drawing on qualitative data collected between September and November 2024 through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders across federal, state, and local governance levels, the study identifies infrastructure reliability as a foundational determinant of digital state capacity. While existing literature on digital governance in developing contexts has largely focused on technological adoption, institutional capacity, and user readiness, it often treats electricity and basic infrastructure as background conditions rather than central explanatory variables. This paper addresses that gap by demonstrating that unreliable electricity supply systematically disrupts digital service delivery processes, constrains administrative workflows, and generates uneven governance outcomes across regions. The findings further reveal that persistent service failures contribute to declining public trust in digitally mediated governance systems, particularly in rural areas where infrastructural deficits are more severe. To conceptualize these dynamics, the study advances the Political Economy of Digital Infrastructure and Governance Interaction (PE-DIGIT) framework, which integrates political economy conditions, infrastructure stability, digital performance, and trust relationships into a unified analytical model. By situating digital governance within broader infrastructural constraints, the paper contributes to debates on digital transformation in the Global South and underscores the need for coordinated policy approaches that align energy access, infrastructure development, and institutional reform. The study concludes that digital innovation cannot substitute for foundational public goods; rather, it must be supported by reliable infrastructure to achieve inclusive, effective, and trusted governance outcomes.