A Scenario-Based Model of Energy Transition in Central and Eastern Europe: Implications for Energy Security and Decarbonization

This study examines energy transition pathways in Central and Eastern Europe by integrating decarbonization goals with energy security requirements. The transition is shaped by two major challenges: reducing greenhouse gas emissions and ensuring stable energy supply under geopolitical uncertainty. Transition strategies include the expansion of renewable energy sources, electrification, diversification of supply, and the development of system flexibility. Using a scenario-based modeling framework aligned with international energy outlooks, this study analyzes the implications of different transition pathways for 11 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The results indicate that a high ambition scenario could increase the share of renewable energy sources to 60–80% of the energy mix by 2050, while maintaining 10–20% nuclear capacity to support system stability. At the same time, electricity demand could increase by approximately 120% due to transport and industrial electrification, despite decreasing total primary energy consumption. The study identifies three transition models—renewable-dominated, hybrid, and nuclear-oriented—and concludes that effective transition strategies in Central and Eastern Europe require differentiated policy approaches that account for infrastructure constraints, energy security, and regional heterogeneity.