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As a nation in the low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ), Vietnam is highly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge (SLR/S) due to rapid global warming. Using a novel computa-tional approach, this paper projects the SLR/S impacts across Vietnam’s 352 districts and 39 provinces to 2035, 2050 and 2100 by climate change scenario (i. e. , Representative Concen-tration Pathway (RCPs) 4. 5 and 8. 5). In 2100, the physical losses from SLR/S range from 371, 200 hectares (ha) and 806, 500 homes to 1, 072, 700 ha and 2, 950, 000 homes for RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5, respectively. The cumulative economic damages in land values range from 1, 407 to 3, 125 billion. The average SLR/S cost per year for land values alone is 4. 1% and 9. 0% of the nation’s current GDP for RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5, respectively. Migration (largely from the south to the north) is estimated at 6. 0 million for RCP4. 5 and 10 million for RCP8. 5 (the latter representing about 10% of the current population). A striking feature of the results is the substantial heterogeneity in damages across regions and sub-regions, with the Mekong Delta and the North Coast most affected. Practical adaptation measures are essential to Vietnam’s resilience to future SLR/S challenges.
Kompas et al. (Wed,) studied this question.