ABSTRACT This paper considers the tensions between different organizational strategic decision‐making approaches at various levels of uncertainty. Of particular focus are the mechanisms for defaulting to lower uncertainty, from the Cynefin framework's unordered chaotic and complex domains to the more ordered complicated and obvious domains. This defaulting is caused by a range of uncertainty aversion mechanisms. Due to the unacknowledged uncertainty and unchallenged reference narratives, this uncertainty aversion can lead to tunnel vision or “failure of foresight,” which is inherent in most complex organizational disasters. This paper suggests that strategic decision‐makers need to adopt a multi‐paradigmatic approach to management to allow them to operate successfully under both low or high uncertainty.
Logan et al. (Thu,) studied this question.