Running on Empty: How Back-to-Backs Impact Pace and the Four Factors of Basketball Success

We investigate how back-to-back games affect National Basketball Association (NBA) team performance using the Four Factors of Basketball Success - effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover percentage (TOV%), offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%), and free throw rate (FT/FGA), as well as pace of play. Drawing on game-level data from the 2013-14 through 2023-24 seasons and over 20,000 observations, we use a fixed-effects regression model to estimate the total effect of second-night-back-to-back scheduling on team performance. The results show that back-to-backs significantly reduce offensive efficiency, lower rebounding rates, and slow down pace. Defensively, teams allow higher opponent eFG%, generate fewer turnovers, and give up more defensive rebounds and free throw attempts. These findings suggest that second-night back-to-back scheduling is associated with declines in both effort-based and execution-based metrics, providing new insight into the real costs of NBA scheduling practices. The results matter not only for analysts and teams managing player workloads, but also for league officials seeking to improve player health and game quality.