Assessing the Resilience of China’s Beef Cattle Industry: Measurement, Spatiotemporal Dynamics, and Obstacle Factors

In the context of increasing beef import dependence, global feed-market volatility, climate risks, and sustainability-oriented livestock transformation, strengthening the resilience of China’s beef cattle industry is essential for food security, rural livelihoods, and green livestock development. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2022, this study constructs a four-dimensional resilience evaluation system covering foundational, resistance, recovery, and sustainability capacities, and applies the entropy weight method, kernel density estimation, the Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and an obstacle degree model. The results show that the national resilience index of China’s beef cattle industry increased from 0.105 in 2012 to 0.167 in 2022, although the overall level remained relatively low. Sustainability capacity exhibited a shallow U-shaped trajectory, while foundational, resistance, and recovery capacities improved more steadily. The average Dagum Gini coefficient was 0.277, indicating persistent regional imbalance in beef cattle industry resilience. Provincial disparities widened, positive spatial agglomeration weakened, and local spatial heterogeneity became more pronounced. The key constraints included insufficient forage supply, a low level of production scale, weak breeding infrastructure, and lagging innovation capacity, with clear spatial heterogeneity. This study develops a resilience evaluation framework for long-cycle livestock industries and provides empirical evidence and policy implications for the sustainable development of the beef cattle industry in China and other developing livestock systems.