Geological Hazard Assessment in the Yili River Valley Based on the Coupled Model of WOE-BPNN-SHAP

The Yili River Valley in Xinjiang is characterized by complex geological structures and frequent geological hazards, which seriously threaten local lives, property, and infrastructure. Improving the accuracy and interpretability of geological hazard assessment is therefore of great significance. To address this, nine factors, including elevation, distance from fault, and slope, were selected to construct a WOE-BPNN-SHAP coupled model. The weights of evidence (WOE) method was first used for factor correlation testing and to optimize the input of the BP neural network. The evaluation accuracies of WOE, WOE-DNN, and WOE-BP models were then compared, and the SHAP model was introduced to analyze the coupling relationships among factors. Results show that the WOE-BP model achieves the best predictive performance, with an AUC of 83.65%. Areas of extremely high-risk account for 8.63% of the study area, while higher-risk areas account for 15.39%. Elevation (1688–2847 m), distance from fault (<3000 m), precipitation (192.6–290.8 mm), and slope (>16°) are identified as the main driving factors. This coupled method provides a new technical approach for regional geological hazard assessment and offers a theoretical basis for disaster prevention, mitigation, and resilience building in the Yili River Valley.