Coupling Imbalance Mechanism and Optimization Paths of Recreation Service Intensity and Ecological Quality in the Green Spaces of the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area: An Analysis Based on the CCDM and Geodetector

Coordinating the synergistic development of ecological protection and recreational utilization is a core issue for the high-quality development of green spaces in metropolitan areas. Using the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and Moran’s I Outlier Clustering, this study spatially assesses the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between the ecological quality and recreation service intensity of the green spaces in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou region. It further employs the Geodetector model to identify the influencing factors affecting the CCD. The results show the following: (1) The overall regional coordination is low, with 83.96% of green spaces being in moderate-to-severe imbalance and only 16.04% reaching primary-to-intermediate coordination, highlighting a prominent supply–demand imbalance. (2) The spatial pattern exhibits a structure whereby values are “high in the center, low in the east and west”, showing significant spatial differentiation. (3) Among the influencing factors, socio-economic elements such as cultural attractiveness (q = 0.433) and economic development (q = 0.148) play a dominant role, indicating that imbalance is mainly driven by socio-economic factors. Accordingly, this study proposes spatial optimization strategies based on zonal management, balanced layout, and multi-dimensional drivers to promote balanced recreational supply, facilitate the synergy between ecological protection and recreational utilization, and achieve the sustainable development of regional green spaces.