Vertical Structure of Air Temperature Excesses of the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake

The Kamchatka Peninsula is one of the most seismically active regions in the world and experienced the Mw 8.8 earthquake in 2025. To examine whether tectonic processes were associated with enhanced atmospheric warming while minimizing external interference, this study analyzed multi-level air temperature fields from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data. A tidal-force-based background framework was used to characterize the vertical evolution of air temperature excesses before and after the mainshock. Results showed that a pronounced warming excess emerged near the epicentral area prior to the earthquake. The warming excess exhibited the strongest intensity and amplitude in the near-surface layer and decayed progressively with altitude, a pattern that may be consistent with the vertical attenuation expected for tectonically related thermal excesses. Sentinel-5P SO2 observations showed enhanced volcanic SO2 concentrations from mid-July 2025, before the Mw 8.8 mainshock. The SO2 enhancement was observed in the volcanic regions of the study area, suggesting that the SO2 signal may reflect enhanced regional degassing activity while also being influenced by volcanic emissions, plume dispersion, and atmospheric transport. Sentinel-1A InSAR observations derived from SAR images acquired on 23 July and 4 August 2025 represent cumulative coseismic line-of-sight (LOS) deformation associated with the Mw 8.8 mainshock, rather than preseismic subsidence. Overall, the air temperature excesses and SO2 enhancement may provide auxiliary evidence for possible changes in the regional volcanic-tectonic system before the earthquake, whereas the InSAR result provides coseismic deformation context. These findings highlight the potential value of vertical air temperature structure for investigating possible earthquake-related thermal signals, but further studies based on multi-year statistical analyses of various observational datasets and additional earthquake cases are still required.