Understanding Crime Through Education and Economics: A Regional Perspective on Türkiye from Data to Theory

This study investigates the effects of educational and macroeconomic variables on crime rates in Türkiye’s 12 NUTS-1 regions between 2008 and 2022. By focusing on Human Capital Theory and the Economic Theory of Crime, it aims to identify how education level, public education expenditures, early school leaving, literacy, per capita income, and unemployment influence regional crime dynamics. Panel data techniques were applied using IPS and Breitung unit root tests, Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests, and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The data were obtained from Eurostat and include annual figures for 12 regions over a 15-year period. Empirical results reveal that higher education attainment and literacy rates significantly reduce crime rates, while per capita income, unemployment, early school leaving, and education expenditures have a positive and significant relationship with crime. The counterintuitive finding regarding education expenditures suggests concerns about efficiency and the quality of public spending. This study provides new insights into the regional socio-economic determinants of crime in Türkiye. Unlike many studies that focus solely on national-level data or specific types of crime, this research highlights the long-term interplay between education-related factors and overall crime trends at the regional level. The findings suggest that improving the quality and targeting of educational expenditures may be more effective than merely increasing the budget. Region-specific strategies are essential for reducing crime through social investment.