Key result
Risk prediction models for thrombosis and major bleeding after primary PCI demonstrated strong discrimination, with validation AUCs of 0.82 for thrombosis and 0.976 for bleeding.
Why the study?
The study aimed to develop and validate separate risk prediction models for thrombosis events and major bleeding in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease undergoing primary PCI.
Can simple risk scores predict the risks of ischemic and bleeding events after primary PCI in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease?
Cohort (n=2,976)
Can simple risk scores predict the risks of ischemic and bleeding events after primary PCI in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease?
Simple risk scores can accurately predict the risks of ischemic and bleeding events after primary PCI in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease, facilitating clinical decision-making.
May aid individualized antithrombotic decisions after multivessel primary PCI; extends validated separate TE/MB prediction to this population.
Background and Aim This study aimed to develop and validate separate risk prediction models for thrombosis events (TEs) and major bleeding (MB) in patients with multivessel coronary artery lesions who had undergone primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods and Results Thrombosis events (TEs) were defined as the composite of myocardial infarction recurrence or ischemic cerebrovascular events, whereas MB was defined as the occurrence of bleeding academic research consortium (BARC) three or five bleeding. The derivation and validation cohorts comprised 2,976 patients who underwent primary PCI between January 2010 and June 2017. At a median follow-up of 3.07 years (1,122 days), TEs and MB occurred in 167 and 98 patients, respectively. Independent predictors of TEs were older age, prior PCI, non-ST elevated MI (NSTEMI), and stent thrombosis (ST). Independent predictors of MB were triple therapy at discharge, coronary artery bifurcation lesions, lesion restenosis, target lesion of the left main coronary artery, stent thrombosis, non-use of IABP during primary PCI, type A/B according to the American College of Cardiology classification of the coronary lesion, and PTCA. In the derivation and validation cohorts, the areas under the curve were 0.817 and 0.82 for thrombosis and 0.886 and 0.976 for bleeding, respectively. In the derivation cohort, high thrombotic risk ( n = 755) was associated with higher 3-year incidence of TEs, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), and all-cause death compared to low risk ( n = 1,275) ( p = 0.0022, 0.019, and 0.012, respectively). High bleeding risk ( n = 1,675) was associated with higher incidence of bleeding, MACEs, and cardiac death compared to low risk ( n = 355) ( p < 0.0001). Conclusion Simple risk scores can be useful in predicting risks of ischemic and bleeding events after primary PCI, thereby stratifying thrombotic or MB risks and facilitating clinical decisions.
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Zhao et al. (2022) conducted a cohort in Multivessel coronary artery disease (n=2,976). High thrombotic and bleeding risk scores vs. Low risk scores was evaluated on Thrombosis events (TEs) and major bleeding (MB). Risk prediction models for thrombosis and major bleeding after primary PCI demonstrated strong discrimination, with validation AUCs of 0.82 for thrombosis and 0.976 for bleeding.
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