Divergent drivers across scales: stable land use carbon emission coordination and its heterogeneous mechanisms in the Yellow River Basin Urban Agglomerations

Grasping the complex relationship between land use and carbon emissions is crucial for fostering sustainable, low-carbon growth. This study explored the interconnectedness of these elements in the Yellow River Basin Urban Agglomerations from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression model is employed to analyze the driving forces behind this relationship in 2020. The main conclusions include: (1) The land use mix index remained stable, peaking at 0.9 downstream. (2) Carbon emissions decreased by 3.6%, with higher emissions in the east. (3) Coupling coordination remained stable; 53% were ‘barely out of tune’ or ‘basic coordinated’ at the raster scale, while 47% were ‘basic coordinated’ at the county and city scales, showing a ‘V’-shaped trend. (4) Topography was a key factor across scales, while GDP, population density and industrial structure had scale dependent impacts. This study underscores the value of multiscale analyses for dual carbon goals.