From Subsistence to Market-Oriented Farming: The Role of Informal Credit in Agricultural Commercialization in Post-War South Sudan

This article examines how informal credit provided through Community Group Saving and Lending (CGSL) mechanisms supports the movement of rural households from subsistence and semi-subsistence farming towards market-oriented agriculture in post-war South Sudan. Drawing on a mixed-methods doctoral study conducted in Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei and Lakes States between 2022 and 2025, the analysis focuses on the credit-to-commercialisation pathway through which smallholders mobilise savings, borrow from collective funds, acquire farm inputs and reinvest returns from agricultural production. The quantitative component used 81 valid survey responses drawn from a target sample of 85 respondents, while the qualitative component used 17 interviews with farmers and local actors. Descriptive statistics showed that 68% of respondents were primarily engaged in farming, confirming that the evidence was anchored in agricultural livelihoods. Mean scores indicated strong agreement that access to rural finance makes a difference in agricultural productivity (M = 4.58), that productivity rises through increased investment (M = 4.49), and that scarcity of working capital remains a serious constraint (M = 4.68). Chi-square results showed a significant association between CGSL participation and transformation to market-oriented production (χ² = 15.92, p = 0.0001). Logistic regression further showed that credit access significantly increased the likelihood of investing in modern agricultural technologies (β = 1.9459, p = 0.026). The article argues that informal credit is not merely a survival mechanism; in fragile rural economies, it acts as an institutional bridge between household subsistence, productive investment and early agricultural commercialisation. However, the transition remains constrained by short loan cycles, limited capital depth, climate exposure, weak extension services and the uneven reach of NGOs. The article recommends strengthening group governance, increasing patient capital, linking CGSLs to agricultural extension, and designing hybrid informal-formal financial products suited to post-conflict rural markets.