Climate Variability, Flood Risk, and the Agricultural Investment Decisions of CGSL Members in Jonglei State

Climate variability and recurrent flooding are now central to the way rural households in Jonglei State judge the value and danger of agricultural investment. This article examines how members of Community Group Saving and Lending (CGSL) mechanisms make agricultural investment decisions under flood-sensitive conditions in Bor County, Jonglei State, while drawing comparative evidence from a wider three-state study covering Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei and Lakes State. The article reworks a mixed-methods doctoral dataset collected between 2022 and 2025, consisting of 85 targeted survey respondents, 81 valid questionnaire responses and 17 qualitative interviews. The analytical focus is on the interaction between climate risk, informal credit access, working-capital scarcity, agricultural technology adoption, and the willingness of farmers to commit resources to input purchase, productivity improvement and market-oriented production. Results show that the Jonglei sub-sample achieved a 97 percent response rate, with farming as the dominant occupation and male respondents accounting for 76 percent of valid responses. Mean scores show strong agreement that rural financial access makes a difference to agricultural productivity (Jonglei mean = 4.59), that productivity rise is linked to investment (4.52), and that working capital scarcity remains severe (4.72). Statistical results from the broader dataset indicate a significant association between CGSL participation and agricultural productivity indicators (chi-square = 15.92, p = 0.0001), while logistic regression shows that access to credit significantly influences investment in modern agricultural technologies (β = 1.9459, p = 0.026). The article argues that flood risk does not simply reduce investment; it changes investment timing, technology choice, loan appetite, repayment behaviour and the perceived value of collective savings. CGSLs therefore function both as a buffer against climate stress and as a limited financing platform whose small loan sizes and short cycles constrain long-term adaptation. The study recommends flood-sensitive loan products, contingency funds, climate-smart extension, improved savings protection and stronger linkage between CGSLs, public agencies and humanitarian-development actors in Jonglei State.