Simulation-based planning system for a power to methanol supply chain

The synthesis of e-methanol (MeOH) from green H2 and CO2 using renewable electricity represents a promising pathway for sustainable fuel production. However, integrated production planning and supply chain coordination in Power-to-Methanol (PtM) systems remain largely unexplored. This study develops a simulation–optimisation framework for evaluating production planning, inventory control, and logistics coordination strategies in multi-echelon PtM supply chains. The framework captures interactions among key stakeholders, including CO2 suppliers, MeOH distributors, and logistics providers, and incorporates alternative operational strategies for hydrogen production, such as Model Predictive Control (MPC) and the Silver–Meal heuristic. The framework is applied to a real-world PtM case study to assess the techno-economic performance of alternative operational configurations. Results demonstrate that coordinated production planning and energy-aware operational strategies significantly improve economic performance by increasing Net Present Value (NPV) and shortening break-even periods (BEP). Sensitivity analysis further indicates that electricity price variability is the dominant factor influencing PtM profitability.