Mundane Geopolitics, Strategic (De)Coupling, and Chinese Infrastructure Investment in Europe

Geopolitical rivalry between China and the US is profoundly affecting transnational investments. We develop an analytical framework that augments the notion of strategic coupling to capture whether and how transnational investment projects can cohere in a geopolitically charged world. Two cases—Duisburg in Germany and the Royal Albert Dock in London, UK—are used to analyze why local development efforts hinging on Chinese capital failed to materialize. Our cases demonstrate that rather than high-profile ruptures in the coupling process the (re-)emergence of geopolitics is driving a process of dealignment between national-level priorities, such as de-risking, and the developmental aims of city-regions. This dealignment reflects more mundane geopolitical influences that need integrating into our understanding of strategic coupling. We also find that geopolitical factors alone do not determine the success or failure of such transnational investments, and analysis must include the interests of key stakeholders and the possibility of miscalculation. Our findings challenge state-centric narratives and underscore the need to account for contingent, multiscalar coalitions that shape development outcomes in the era of geopolitics.