Snow loss and prey shift may threaten alpine stoats under climate change

Abstract Climate change is profoundly affecting mountain ecosystems, yet its impacts on predator–prey relationships remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the effects of climate change on the stoat ( Mustela erminea ), a cold-adapted predator whose seasonal white coat relies on snow cover for camouflage, and its specialized prey, the snow vole ( Chionomys nivalis ), in the Italian Alps. Using occurrence records and an ensemble of Species Distribution Models, we projected current and future distributions under two climate scenarios to 2100. Snow cover duration and snow vole presence emerged as the most influential predictors of stoat distribution, together explaining over 64% of model variance. Our results forecast a projected contraction in stoat distribution, ranging from 15% (SD = 20) under SSP3-7.0 to 36% (SD = 19) under SSP5-8.5, whereas the snow vole is projected to expand its range under both scenarios, particularly in northern sectors of the Alps. Future projections also indicated a growing elevational mismatch between the species, with stoats shifting upward while snow voles showing a slight downward shift under both scenarios. Although further mechanistic studies are needed to clarify the processes underlying the projected decline, our findings suggest that reassessing the conservation status of the stoat at the Italian level may be warranted. We recommend the implementation of long-term monitoring programs and the use of innovative tools to improve stoat data collection. Conservation actions should prioritize high-elevation habitats and address broader anthropogenic pressures to support the persistence of stoats and other cold-adapted species in a warming alpine landscape.