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July 13, 2026Geomechanics for Energy and the Environment1 citationsOpen Access

What does “good performance” mean in geotechnical machine learning?

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RTReza TaherdangkooAAAlireza ArabSSSima Shakiba

Key Points

  • The study aims to define what constitutes 'good performance' in machine learning for geotechnical engineering and discuss the implications for model reliability.
  • Synthesis of common failure modes in machine learning applications in geotechnics.
  • Analysis of validation challenges such as spatial dependence and domain shift.
  • Case study predicting mobilized undrained shear strength in clays to illustrate performance issues.
  • Model performance varies significantly based on validation context, leading to potential errors in strength classifications.
  • Small sample sizes and spatial autocorrelation contribute to unreliable predictions.
  • Proposing a minimum evidence evaluation framework to enhance model assessment and decision relevance in engineering.

Abstract

In geotechnical engineering, machine learning success is often reported as “high accuracy”, yet models that score well under conventional metrics may fail in deployment. This article clarifies what “good performance” should mean in geotechnical machine learning and why apparently well built models can lose reliability when transferred across sites, sensing systems, and construction contexts. Performance is interpreted as an engineering claim in which predictions should remain valid under spatially structured data, interpretation dependent labels, proxy driven predictors, and decision thresholds tied to safety and serviceability. We synthesize key failure modes, including non-representative training data, validation leakage under spatial dependence, domain shift, and miscalibrated uncertainty, and show how they interact with common geotechnical data regimes such as small sample sizes, spatial autocorrelation, and heterogeneous data provenance. A case study predicting the logarithm of normalized mobilized undrained shear strength in clays shows that apparent model performance and engineering interpretation are strongly validation dependent. Errors propagate into unconservative strength classifications, while predictive intervals that appear acceptable under sample-wise validation can become less informative under deployment consistent evaluation, directly affecting engineering interpretation. Finally, we propose a minimum evidence evaluation and reporting framework that aligns model assessment with deployment consistent validation, physical admissibility, uncertainty calibration, and decision relevance. Reliable use of machine learning in geotechnical engineering depends less on algorithmic novelty than on disciplined validation strategies, transparent uncertainty reporting, and explicit definition of applicability domains for safety critical decisions.

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Cite This Study

Taherdangkoo et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a547ff4475c38bf615a53dfhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.gete.2026.100865
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