ABSTRACT The growing frequency of global crises has intensified concerns regarding climate vulnerability and the resilience of global production systems. This study examines the heterogeneous effects of supply chain development and supply chain digitalisation on climate vulnerability across countries, while accounting for institutional and investment conditions. Using a panel of 170 countries from 1990 to 2022, the analysis applies instrumental variable fixed effects quantile regression to address endogeneity and capture distributional heterogeneity. The results reveal that supply chain development significantly reduces climate vulnerability, with stronger effects observed in highly vulnerable economies. Supply chain digitalisation exhibits a nonlinear pattern, with positive effects emerging after a threshold level of digital maturity. Financial development consistently reduces climate vulnerability by facilitating investments in adaptive capacity and green technologies. Regulatory quality strengthens the vulnerability‐reducing impact of supply chain transformation, highlighting the importance of governance in aligning technological progress with sustainability objectives. Investment conditions show mixed effects, suggesting that the direction and quality of capital allocation determine whether digitalisation contributes to resilience or increases exposure. Regression discontinuity evidence further indicates that major global crises do not produce abrupt shifts in vulnerability but rather operate through gradual adaptation and reconfiguration of supply networks. The findings underscore the importance of digital capability, institutional quality and sustainable finance in strengthening climate resilience and support policy frameworks that integrate technological innovation with governance and green investment strategies.
Li et al. (Fri,) studied this question.