Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are increasingly deployed in public-sector buildings to support cost efficiency and decarbonization. However, empirical evidence linking actual performance with long-term financial outcomes remains limited, particularly in tropical developing-country contexts. This study evaluates the technical performance, financial viability, and uncertainty of 3 grid-connected rooftop PV systems installed in public-sector buildings in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia. An exploratory multi-case approach was applied using 18–60 months of monitored production data. Technical performance was assessed using final yield (Y f ), performance ratio (PR), and capacity factor (CF), while financial performance was evaluated using net present value (NPV), payback period (PBP), and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) within a 25-year discounted cash flow framework. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess uncertainty in NPV and LCOE. The systems exhibited comparable annual technical performance with Y f of 3.08–3.15 kWh/kWp/day, PR of 68.33% to 70.06%, and CF of 12.80% to 13.13%. Actual production remained below the design benchmark, resulting in a design–operation gap of 6.05%–13.73%. Financially, Object A generated a negative NPV of IDR −63.20 million, while Objects B and C produced positive but modest NPVs of IDR 117.40 million and IDR 157.03 million. The PBP ranged from 12.46 to 13.61 years, and the LCOE ranged from IDR 1775/kWh to IDR 1889/kWh, equivalent to USD 0.10–0.11/kWh. Positive-NPV probabilities ranged from 45.64% to 61.85%, with PV production and capital expenditure emerging as the dominant uncertainty drivers. Annual avoided emissions reached 1.02–1.06 tCO₂/kWp/year. These findings highlight the importance of operational performance, cost control, and risk-informed appraisal in maximizing the long-term value of public-sector rooftop PV assets.
Fahmi et al. (Sat,) studied this question.