Occurrence, inter-annual trends and dietary health-risk assessment of toxic and essential elements in tomato paste from Egyptian markets

A validated inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) method, following microwave-assisted acid digestion, was used to quantify thirteen elements (Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Cr, Fe, Zn, As, Cd, Sn, Hg, Sb and Pb) in 180 tomato paste samples from Egyptian markets over two consecutive production years (2024 and 2025). Iron, zinc, manganese and copper were quantified in every sample (mean order Fe > Zn > Mn >Cu), whereas Cd, As, Hg, Sn and Sb remained below their limits of quantification and, where applicable, below relevant maximum levels. Copper, zinc and manganese increased and iron decreased from 2024 to 2025 (Mann – Whitney, q < 0.001), shifts consistent with possible raw-material or processing variation. Lead was the only quantifiable contaminant; its detection frequency fell from 14.4% of samples (95% CI 8.6–23.2) in 2024 to 0% in 2025 (Fisher’s exact test, p < 0.001). Five 2024 samples (5.6%) exceeded the European Commission maximum level of 0.10 mg kg−1, compared with none in 2025 (p = 0.059). Estimated weekly intakes of the quantified essential metals remained below 0.13% of the applied reference limits, and the hazard index ranged from 0.0043 to 0.0066. The sampled products showed broad regulatory compliance and a more favourable elemental profile in 2025, with lead the priority for continued surveillance. The results provide market-level evidence for inorganic contaminant surveillance in a concentrated tomato matrix affected by agricultural and processing-related inputs.