Ideology, Policy or Party Affiliation? Voter Behavior in the 2021 Hungarian Primary Elections

This study examines electoral behavior during Hungary’s 2021 opposition primaries. Using a unique election day poll and supplementary survey data, we analyze the socio-demographic and attitudinal profiles of primary voters and compare them to the broader opposition electorate. Findings suggest that in a de-democratizing regime with a dominant party, voter behavior is shaped less by policy preferences and more by sociological attributes such as age, gender, and ideological position, and to a lesser extent partisanship. Challenges for opposition coalition building stem less from programmatic disagreements and more from bridging sociological and identity-based divides.