No longer small? Azerbaijan’s pursuit of middle power status

This article analyses Azerbaijan’s foreign policy transformation through middle power theory and role theory, contending that the country aspires to, and selectively performs, behaviours associated with middle powers rather than having fully attained such status. The existing literature often emphasises Azerbaijan’s structural limitations and reliance on energy diplomacy, overlooking its growing agency and regional leadership aspirations. This study employs a qualitative single-case design and applies theory-guided process tracing to examine key turning points such as the 1994 Contract of the Century, the 2020 Karabakh War, and recent multilateral engagements, supplemented with supportive statistical data. These events are analysed across three dimensions: national role conception, role performance and structural constraints. The findings suggest that Azerbaijan seeks to enact roles such as ‘active independent’ and ‘bridge’, while navigating pressures from major powers. The case contributes to debates on aspiration, perception and categorisation in emerging states, while also highlighting alternative frameworks such as niche diplomacy or subsystemic power.