The Odero Theory of Captured Structural Inflation OTCSI

Standard monetary policy fails to control inflation in structurally captured Africaneconomies. We propose the Odero Theory of Captured Structural Inflation -OTCSI, which models inflation as a function of market power, asymmetric price transmission,import dependence, and governance decay rather than money supply alone.Using evidence from 6 countries in Africa between 2020-2025, we document auniversal ”Ratchet Effect”: retail prices rise 1:1 with input costs but fall only ∼0.3:1when costs decline. We define the Rigidity Coefficient RC = 3.0 to quantify thiseffect.We introduce the OTCSI Equation and the Odero Curve to quantify structuralinflation. The policy implication is a 4-Pillar De-Capture Act for the AU and FinanceMinisters.